While opinion polls have been positive for the Yes side everything is to play for in the forthcoming Lisbon campaign. Generally there appears to be an in built 60:40 majority for EU treaties in Ireland. Many factors may impact on this most notably the position of the farming community and perhaps the Trade Union movement. The speedy re-establishment of the broad coalition that has persuaded a yes vote must be top of the agenda for the yes side.
It’s not as if we haven’t been here before, following Nice 1 we saw a real re-awakening of a campaigning movement in support of EU integration. Back then the yes side showed they had leant some key lessons in how to communicate their case for a treaty. If it could be done then why not now? For some reason yes campaigners and voters always appear to be more lethargic, lazy and most of all complacent. They unfortunately give off the air of the elite, well educated, well spoken and well connected. We never seem to recognise we need to do a positive sales job on the actual Treaty and what is in it. Platitudes and name calling are simply not enough when No campaigners are passionate, dedicated and committed. The brief period of awakening between Nice 1 and 2was instructive, can it be recovered? Achieving a high level of debate and knowledge of the issues is a must for Yes campaigners and a close run race may focus the minds to some degree.
There are 5 key lessons that may help avoid an unnecessary defeat for Yes campaigners
Stop the name calling and scare tactics: Regardless of how off the wall or ridiculous the No arguments often appear it is the duty of those who know these arguments to be false to explain why they are wrong and give the positive side of the argument. Simple name calling turns off floating voters and don’t knows. Similarly claiming that the sky will fall in if there is a No vote is patent nonsense when we examine the Nice experience and the votes on the failed Constitution. It is more accurate to point out this will lead to uncertainty and the same questions will still need to be dealt with.
Show Passion and Belief: One of the best contributions to the debate form the “Yes” side last time was not by an Irish person and hardly ion public at all. Commission President Barrosso in taking questions at the National Forum on Europe spoke about freedom and growing up in a dictatorship. Unfortunately the pro integration message in Ireland was always based on very narrow grounds connected with structural funds and related matters. Irish people do care about the big picture. For example we need to stop seeing security and defence issues as things to be rebutted and disproven, rather yes campaigners should illustrate the critical and indispensible role that the 21 EU security and defence missions to date have played. Irish defence forces and Gardai have been central to these. However it is always the No side that appears most vigorous and passionate in their rhetoric. Treaties may be technical and boring in nature but they are part of a broader picture and his again needs to be pointed out.
Mobilise on the Ground: While the national media is critical to all campaigning the sound bite approach is not always satisfactory when people see the issues as complex and difficult. Of course there are big picture issues but many people wan to talk to people who know what it is about and to have the issues explained in everyday terms. The only real way to do this is to get local units of political parties and other groups out into communities and indeed on to doorsteps to explain the issues and listen to any concerns. However the political parties will not be up for this so soon after the local and European elections. At least public meetings and “what the Treaty means” events can play a role
Build a civic coalition: “This is too important for the politicians” said a leading Yes campaigner in advance of Nice 2. Despite their links to local communities and civic groups politicians can only do so much. It is vital that other groups in society who deal with European issues on a regular basis come out and give their views. For example development organisations have pointed to many improvements in the way humanitarian issues will be handled under the treaty
Most people believe that there is an inherent Yes majority in Ireland but this can never be taken for granted. All those who believe that Lisbon finally improves the democratic deficit and improves Europe’s efficiency must start acting like this is a real campaign or they may come to regret it.